Handbook strategic foresight | The future of public health foresight

The previous chapters might have made clear that a foresight study is not an activity you do just like that. It requires a way of working and thinking that is systematic, abstract and not fearful of uncertainty. This is not always present in all researchers. Most researchers have been trained to look for good evidence rather than embracing uncertainty. Especially in the field of public health such a strong orientation on evidence-informed policy making may not be helpful in stimulating the application of foresight. It requires therefore further strengthening of foresight capacity. Other aspects that are not in favour of a strong public health foresight tradition in comparison to other research files might be the importance of (health) behaviour which is still at its infancy of being understood, public health being a strong national affair in the EU not encouraging exchange of public health foresight knowledge and information, the complexity of health and health care (though other research fields might have similar justifiably claim as well). Other research fields such as climate change and technology might have had the same barriers and current day foresight practices are now common practices in these fields. So there is hope for a bright future of public health foresight studies.Foresight is a discipline that is also strongly evolving. New methods and tools might arise, with AI as one of the most impactful. RIVM is investing in exploring the potential use of new, innovative methods. Next to AI, group model building, and storytelling are three focal points in the Project INFORM (innovation in foresight methods) as apart of  RIVM’s strategic research programme. RIVM is open to learn, apply, exchange these experience, with this handbook as one of the exponents of these ambitions. 

Handbook strategic foresight | Results

Finishing all these phases and steps results in valuable knowledge and insights regarding possible futures. It identifies the most important cognitive and normative uncertainties. Next to it, it also provides challenges that are recognised by different stakeholders, and options for action to tackle or anticipate these challenges. These options for action have, where possible, a sound scientific evidence base, but also account for uncertainties: past results are no guarantee for the future. Despite these uncertainties, public health policy has to be made. Therefore, informing policy makers with the knowledge gained from a foresight study is the best what a researcher can do. It is then up to policy makers to weigh these insights and uncertainties and take certain decisions, of course with many other factors that can play a role for taking decisions. However, this informing policy makers can be done in many ways, some more effective than others. To do this systematically, the concept of knowledge translation is very useful. In short, knowledge translation is about getting the right knowledge to the right person at the right moment.6.1    Knowledge translation to have impact with a foresight studyKnowledge translation (KT) is a critical component of a public health foresight study, ensuring that the insights derived from the study are effectively communicated, understood, and applied by relevant stakeholders. A foresight study generates valuable information about future public health trends, challenges, and opportunities, but without effective KT, these insights risk remaining underutilized. KT bridges the gap between knowledge production and action by transferring scientific evidence to policymakers, practitioners, and the public in ways that promote informed decision-making and real-world implementation.6.2    Who?KT involves a wide variety of audiences, each with unique roles in public health foresight:The main target group is often formed by policymakers and governments: they use foresight findings to plan long-term health strategies, allocate resources, and design policies to address anticipated challenges. However, these groups can also be reached through other groups in society such as Public health practitioners: Healthcare organizations and workforce: Researchers and academics, Community stakeholders and even the general public: 6.3    What and how?To reach out to these groups, different outputs or products might be developed.  These may include reports, a dedicated website, presentations etc. To reach policy makers, compact products such as a policy brief or executive summaries with the core findings and action pathways might be a good option. Overall, having attractive visualizations such as informative charts, infographics, and videos can be very successful. 6.4    When?As stated before, KT activities should occur throughout the foresight study process, not just at the end: For example at the early stages to engage stakeholders in the design of the foresight study, ensuring their concerns and knowledge needs will be addressed, but also during the study by sharing preliminary insights, emerging trends, or interim results to refine hypotheses and maintain stakeholder buy-in. Obviously in the post-study dissemination, at the conclusion of the study, findings, actionable recommendations, and tailored messages to stakeholders. This also includes long-term follow-up: Establish mechanisms to revisit foresight findings periodically to assess their continued relevance in the light of changing circumstances. Especially, this long-term follow-up is not always compatible with a project life time that does not explicitly recognises the importance of this.6.5    ConclusionKnowledge translation is vital in public health foresight studies to ensure that insights are not only generated but also understood, trusted, and acted upon. By addressing who needs the information, what content to share, when to communicate, and how to disseminate findings, KT bridges the gap between long-term scenarios and meaningful public health action in the coming years. Ultimately, effective KT leads to better-informed planning, improved health outcomes, and stronger preparedness for an uncertain future.