Foresight occupational health and safety in the Netherlands 

To understand the impact on occupational health and safety over the next 20 years, the Dutch Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment (SZW) commissioned RIVM and TNO to gain insight in the external future developments and their impact on health and safety at work. The project revealed a range of developments that will influence occupational health and safety. The ageing workforce, globalisation, growing individualism, robotisation, the energy transition and the proliferation of rules (juridification) are some examples of these developments. Most of these developments are interconnected in their occurrence and impact. As a first step, a horizon scan is conducted. In the coming years future developments will be further explored. 

Foresight study into screening and early detection  

The Dutch government provides several population screening programmes intended for early detection of diseases so that prompt treatment can be provided. These include population screenings for various forms of cancer and screenings for specific diseases in unborn and newborn children. The future provision of these screenings is influenced by various developments, including the ageing population, economic and technological developments and societal views. In this foresight study, the trajectory of these developments and their potential impact on population screening programmes is explored. 

Foresight of Palliative care  

Palliative care encompasses all care and support for people with incurable illnesses and their loved ones. The aim is to ensure the best possible quality of life for these individuals. The Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport (VWS) commissioned RIVM develop a vision for the future of palliative care in the Netherlands, in close collaborating with relevant stakeholders. In this foresight study, three future scenarios describe palliative care in 2050 from different perspectives. In the first scenario, communities in society take centre stage, prioritising solidarity and mutual care. The second scenario focuses on the individual, emphasising personal autonomy in determining what constitutes quality of life. In the third scenario, the focus is on professionals, ensuring optimal and efficient care for those in need. These scenarios highlight that perspectives on the future of palliative care vary and that multiple solutions are possible.  

The Netherlands has a rich and long tradition of doing foresight studies. This started already immediately after the Second World War, in the period of reconstruction. In 1945, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) was established under the leadership of Nobel Prize winner Jan Tinbergen. Since then, many other organization followed in making their own foresight studies, such as PBL, SCP, CBS, KNMI, STT, WRR. The diversity of foresight studies they represent is enormous , regarding their role in the policy making process, their qualitative and quantitative nature. Also RIVM has a notable record in making foresight studies. After publishing the environmental outlook in 1988 “Caring for tomorrow”, RIVM published in 1993 its first Public health foresight study. Where relevant and possible, RIVM seeks close collaboration with the other national organisations making a PHFS. RIVM supports strongly an intensive exchange of experience and expertise in the field of foresight. 

At the international level, Public health foresight studies are somewhat behind compared to other research fields. Foresight studies in the field of climate change, with the Intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) as one of the most authoritative institutions, the environmental outlooks of the UNEP, the economic scenarios from the OECD, and the technology scenarios of the UK's Royal Society of Arts are just some examples of how useful foresight is to get a better understating of possible futures and to support policy making. There is a growing international interest in public health foresight studies, fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic. RIVM is playing an active role on the international public health foresight podium. There are various activities that RIVM is investing in.  

Presidency of EUPHA Foresight section

RIVM has the presidency of Foresight section of the European Public Health Association (EUPHA). This section aims to apply foresight methodologies to public health, grow the expertise to perform foresight exercises, and share insights on how to link foresight results to policy making. It aims to bring together researchers, policymakers and practitioners working in the same field for knowledge sharing and capacity building.  

WHO Task force on Foresight

RIVM has a project agreement with WHO HQ to setup a WHO Task force on Foresight. The overarching objective of this Task Force is to explore how to promote, to strengthen and institutionalise the use of foresight knowledge in evidence-informed policy-making, such as in the context of the WHO Evidence-informed Policy Network (EVIPNet). In 2025, this task force will be formed. 

The Population Health Information Research Infrastructure (PHIRI)  

PHIRI aimed to facilitate and generate the best available evidence for research on health and well-being of populations. Launched during the COVID-19 crisis, PHIRI allows for better coordinated European efforts across national and European stakeholders to generate the best population health knowledge. RIVM leads work packages 9 in PHIRI, Foresight: Modelling and Scenarios which had the objectives to develop and provide foresight capacity (levelling the knowledge needed for performing foresight, reducing information inequalities, strengthening European data uniformity) and to support evidence-based policy decisions, by exploring direct and indirect effects of the current pandemic on population health using foresight.